Qatar’s economy remains strong, and medium-term growth is projected to be 4% as the expansion of the North Field continues, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) reported in its Article IV consultation with Qatar.
The IMF projected twin external and fiscal surpluses to continue, and inflation to remain above 2.5% in 2026 before stabilising at 2% over the medium term.
“Qatar’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by forward-looking policies and large hydrocarbon wealth,” said the Bretton Woods institution. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in the North Field will strengthen Qatar’s position as a key global energy supplier.
“Overall growth over the medium term is projected to average 4%, reflecting the North Field expansion, which will significantly increase LNG production, and implementation of NDS3 (Third National Development Strategy),” it said.
“The ongoing implementation of NDS3 is facilitating a transition towards a private sector-led, knowledge-based, more diversified, and environmentally sustainable economy,” the IMF report stated further.
The IMF forecasts robust non-hydrocarbon growth of over 4% in 2025, in line with good growth in G1 of 2025 and strong PMI readings. However, it stressed that the outlook remains favourable; growth recovered to 2.4% in 2024, driven by more rapid non-hydrocarbon expansion of 3.4%.
It highlighted twin external and fiscal surpluses to continue, noting that the current account remained strong in 2024, posting a surplus of over 17% of GDP. This result was largely due to good performance in the service sector and current transfers, which largely offset the deteriorating trade balance.
The first quarter of 2025 saw the surplus stay strong at 15.6% of GDP, and the Qatar Central Bank is amassing foreign reserves at USD 55 billion, 8.1 months of imports, in August. According to the report, the direct effects of US tariffs are expected to be minimal, given the exemption for hydrocarbon exports.