Beyond the issue of Tesla employing the wrong adhesive, the latest Cybertruck recall has brought some striking revelations to light. Since deliveries commenced just over fourteen months ago, Elon Musk’s company has reportedly sold 46,096 of these formidable 7,000-pound electric pickups.
Musk told investors that Tesla would soon sell 250,000 Cybertrucks annually, but this is a significant drop in sales from his predictions made just weeks before the launch. Musk boasted that Tesla had secured “over 1 million” Cybertruck reservations and that “demand is off the charts” during an earnings call one month before the production vehicle’s November 2023 launch.
Initially paying $100 to get into the line, “reservationists” later increased their refundable deposit to $250. Waitlists are frequently created by automakers for models where demand is predicted to exceed supply, but most auto executives don’t anticipate that all depositors will complete their orders.
Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights for auto tech company Cox Automotive, tells WIRED that the automotive industry strives for a reservation conversion rate of between 2% and 16%.
According to that calculation, Tesla’s conversion rate is slightly less than 5%. Many experts, accustomed to Tesla’s stratospheric sales, might view that as a failure even though it’s at the lower end of the conversion scale. The wealthiest automaker in the world is typically not viewed by analysts as a typical automaker. It is worth many times more than companies that sell more cars because its stock trades at a multiple of earnings.
The Texas Gigafactory, where the Cybertruck is manufactured, has the capacity to produce more than 125,000 of the pickups annually. So if manufacturing capacity is any indicator of the sales figures that Tesla was anticipating, the company must be extremely disappointed. However, a January Business Insider article claims that workers were transferred from the “Cyber” production line to a Model Y line as a result of low Cybertruck sales.
Tesla’s current high value is based on projected sales of its unreleased robotaxis and humanoid Optimus robots, which, like the Cybertruck, are expected to arrive three years before going into production, and may take several years to mass-produce.
At an all-hands meeting on March 20, Musk told Tesla employees, “My predictions have a pretty good track record.”
However, no one in the room dared to question Musk about whether he had foreseen the anti-Musk backlash that is severely hurting Tesla’s global sales.
Additionally, Tesla is not “by far the most innovative company in the car industry,” despite Musk’s claims during the staff meeting. In terms of autonomous driving and other technologies, Chinese automakers such as XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto are significantly ahead of Tesla.
Waymo already provides rides in a driverless taxi. Furthermore, Tesla is not alone in its plans for humanoid robots.
According to author Peter Diamandis in a recent TechFirst podcast, there were fifteen other companies in this race, and none of them had a leader as contentious or polarising as Musk.
“This year, we hopefully will be able to make about 5,000 Optimus robots. That’s the size of a Roman legion. Which is like a scary thought. Like a whole legion of robots. I’ll be like, whoa,” Musk said.
As he asserted that Tesla would produce “probably 50,000-ish (Optimus robots) next year,” Musk’s enthusiasm persisted.
“Optimus will be the biggest product of all time by far—nothing will even be close,” he asserted.
“Compared to the next largest product ever created, it will be ten times larger. I predict that we will eventually produce tens of millions of robots annually,” the tech and EV billionaire commented, following which he raised the stakes even higher by declaring, “No, Tesla would produce perhaps 100 million robots annually.”
Grandiose predictions excite Tesla bulls who believe him when Musk said, “I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth,” but back in the real world, Musk is in charge of a car manufacturing company that can’t even specify the correct grade of panel glue.
Musk’s controversial angular pickups are currently experiencing a sharp decline in sales as they are involved in their eighth recall in the last 14 months, which also included problems with trapped accelerator pedals, failing windshield wipers, and potential wheel power loss. Cox Automotive estimates that Cybertruck sales decreased 32.5% in February compared to the previous month.
“The Cybertruck generated significant buzz with its unique design and ambitious specifications. However, sales have fallen short of expectations due to higher-than-promised prices, lower driving range and payload capacity, and production issues. The unconventional design hasn’t resonated with traditional truck buyers, and strong competition from Rivian and Ford has intensified the market,” Cox’s Streaty said.
She goes on to say that the Cybertruck is a “niche product with a unique design and high price point, which may not resonate with mainstream consumers. A major obstacle to the Cybertruck’s commercial success is recalls and quality issues, which can seriously erode consumer trust and sales.”
Musk stated during the 2019 unveiling that the production car would go on sale in two years, with a $39,900 model as the starting price. The base model cost $21,000 more than it did when it was actually released in 2023.
The Foundation Series model, which was an early-door special, cost an extra $20,000 even though it only had a look-at-me logo and no other physical differences. Lifetime cellular connectivity and “free” use of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system were examples of non-physical benefits.
Experts contacted by Forbes estimate that Tesla invested at least $2 billion in the creation of the Cybertruck. UCLA professor of strategy and sociology Olav Sorenson, who is also the faculty director of the university’s Price Centre for Entrepreneurship and Innovation, has estimated that a conventional car might require 200,000 units annually to cover the costs of research and development. Because of its unusual design and stainless-steel body panels, Sorenson estimates that the Cybertruck may need up to 300,000 sales annually.
According to Sorenson, at the current rate of Cybertruck sales, Tesla “probably loses money on everyone.” Although it is an inventive vehicle, it has always been uncertain if such a unique design would be well-liked by buyers. The first car made of stainless steel, the DeLorean, sold only 9,000 units.
The PT Cruiser and other mainstream vehicles with unique designs have had trouble turning a profit. Tesla was unfortunate to learn that Musk’s wedge wagon had a million or more reservations.
The Cybertruck’s now-famous quality-control problems may have contributed to this demand softening more quickly than anticipated. Andy Palmer, the former CEO of Aston Martin, said, “We knew this would be a highly desirable car when we launched reservations for the Valkyrie due to its limited production and the personnel involved in the car’s development. People knew they could count on Aston to deliver the new car. We’ve observed a series of delays and goalpost relocations for the Cybertruck, which suggests unreliability. If the OEM isn’t trustworthy, why should customers be?”
According to a northern Maryland reservationist who spoke to WIRED under condition of anonymity, Musk’s promise of an electric pickup convinced him to buy. He states that he intended to purchase a truck and that he wanted an electric car for his next vehicle.
“At the time, the Cybertruck was the only electric pickup that appeared to be on the horizon. I cancelled my reservation after the Cybertruck took significantly longer than anticipated to deliver the mid-tier item, for which I had paid $100 in advance. After the events of the past few years, and particularly the past few months, I would never purchase a Tesla car again,” he added.
The price increase was the deal-breaker for a lot of reservationists. According to Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at the online retailer Edmunds, “The Cybertruck was promised to start at $39,990 when the initial reservations began—a stratospheric difference from the $99,990 Foundation Series trucks that were first available. With an anticipated base MSRP of $60,990 for even the most affordable base model, it’s unlikely that many buyers will be willing to pay the enormous price difference.”
In 2024, Kelley Blue Book estimated that Tesla sold only 38,965 of the angular electric vehicles. With Foundation Series models still available, a model that Tesla was supposed to have stopped selling in October, the company offered discounts in January 2025 to clear Cybertruck inventories. Low financing rates are now available from Tesla to move Cybertrucks.
In order to sell Foundation Series cars that didn’t sell, it has reportedly buffed out the badges to make them resemble standard models. Benefits like free lifetime Supercharging have also been offered by Tesla dealerships in an effort to move more Foundation Series Cybertrucks out.
Even on used car lots, electric pickups are becoming more and more common. It’s unlikely that US President Donald Trump’s public call for Americans to purchase Musk’s vehicles at a White House sales event made much of a difference.
According to Tesla bull Dan Ives, the company is having a “brand tornado crisis moment.” Since the year began, the company’s stock has fallen by almost 40%, wiping out the value increase it experienced in December 2024 following Trump’s election—a win that Musk helped finance.
Aside from the redesigned Model Y Juniper, Tesla also faces a jaded lineup of products, which is exacerbated by the subsequent hostility towards Musk. The novelty effect that may have increased the Cybertruck’s initial sales has definitely worn off. A Morgan research note was released earlier this year.
“Tesla is probably the most expensive stock on the global stock exchanges right now. It could go down 95%—and maybe it should go down 95%,” Gardell said.
Gardell sees Tesla as just a car company, but other analysts say it’s a tech company with enormous potential for non-auto sales. He finds it hard to comprehend why Tesla is regarded with such respect by the market.
“The valuation of Tesla is incomprehensible,” he said on the EFN channel.
He believes that a collision is likely to happen soon. Predicting the exact timing is challenging; it could occur in a month, six months, a year, three years, or even five years. However, during the interview, it was clear that Gardell is convinced it will take place.
Even though Musk recently praised the Cybertruck’s five-star overall safety rating from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, saying it is “apocalypse-level safe,” any Tesla market crash will at least partly be caused by the Cybertruck’s lower-than-expected sales.
The day that Tesla’s CEO classified his forecasts as having a “pretty good track record” may ultimately be one he regrets. Musk admitted during a 2023 earnings call that the car company had “dug our own grave with the Cybertruck.” He might have been right on this one if the brand’s current trends continue after this.
Meanwhile, in 2024, Chinese automaker BYD reported 777 billion yuan ($107 billion) in revenue, surpassing US rival Tesla as the two electric vehicle rivals intensify their competition.
Sales of its hybrid cars helped BYD report a 29% rise in revenue over the prior year. This amount was higher than the $97.7 billion in yearly revenue that Elon Musk’s Tesla company reported.
Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu praised BYD’s “rapid development” in 2024, pointing out that the company was the first in the world to roll out 10 million new energy vehicles in November.
“BYD has become an industry leader in every sector from batteries, electronics to new energy vehicles, breaking the dominance of foreign brands and reshaping the new landscape of the global market,” Wang said in a statement.
The filing was made soon after BYD revealed a new battery technology that it says can charge electric vehicles (EVs) nearly as fast as filling up a car with gas.
Recently, the carmaker announced that its new “Super e-Platform” will enable vehicles equipped with the technology to reach 400 kilometres (about 249 miles) of range with only five minutes of charging.
Analysts praised BYD’s new battery platform as “out of this world” and hypothesised that it might cause EV owners to behave very differently.
Shares of BYD listed in Hong Kong have increased 46% so far this year. As a result of growing consumer boycotts and declining demand worldwide, which has been exacerbated by Musk’s emergence as a hard-line conservative political figure, Tesla’s stock has fallen more than 31% so far this year.