If you have been watching the headlines coming out of North Africa lately, you might have noticed a distinct shift. After a couple of years defined by doom-and-gloom predictions, Egypt is staging a comeback that honestly seemed impossible just 18 months ago. We aren’t just talking about stabilising. The country is posting growth numbers that are turning heads and drawing investors back to the table.
The latest signal is a USD 200 million deal signed in the middle week of December 2025 between Egypt and Qatar’s Al Mana Holding. They are setting up a major plant in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, specifically in Ain Sokhna, to turn used cooking oil into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
It is a big deal, not just for the green tech aspect, but because it marks the first major Qatari industrial investment in that specific economic zone. It is a clear sign that the big regional players are putting their money back into the Nile Valley.
What Happened To Egypt?
To appreciate the scale of this recovery, we have to look at how bad things got. By early 2024, the economy was effectively stalled. The country was importing way more than it was exporting, and it was burning through cash trying to keep the Egyptian Pound’s value artificially high against the dollar. The situation was dire, with a massive gap between the official exchange rate and the black-market rate, which paralysed businesses.
Then a perfect storm hit the economy. First, global interest rates spiked, which caused billions of dollars in hot money (short-term foreign investments) to flee the country overnight for safer returns in the United States. Next came the wheat crisis, where the war in Ukraine sent prices skyrocketing.
Since Egypt is the world’s biggest wheat importer, the national grocery bill exploded. Finally, the Red Sea crisis and attacks on shipping lanes caused Suez Canal revenues to plunge by nearly 63% in 2024. That wiped out about USD 6 billion in hard currency that the government desperately needed.
The result was that inflation hit painful highs, peaking near 40% at one point. For a while, just finding dollars to import basic medicines or factory parts was a daily struggle for local businesses.
How Is It Recovering?
The turnaround started with a massive cash injection and some tough choices. The game-changer was the Ras El Hekma deal in early 2024, a massive USD 35 billion investment from the UAE’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ to build a new city on the Mediterranean coast. That single deal brought in enough immediate cash to stop the bleeding and settle immediate debts. With that financial cushion, the Central Bank finally let the currency float. It was a painful adjustment for consumers, but it effectively killed the black market. Suddenly, businesses could plan again.
Since then, the recovery has been steady and measurable. Inflation is cooling after those scary peaks and has trended downward significantly to hover around the 12% to 15% range in late 2025. There is also smarter growth happening as the economy shifts away from being solely dependent on government spending. In late 2025, the ICT (tech) sector grew by over 12%, and non-oil manufacturing was up by 7%. Even tourism is booming despite regional tensions. Numbers are up 8%, with the government eyeing USD 30 billion in revenue this fiscal year.
Where Is It Heading?
The outlook is cautiously optimistic. The World Bank and IMF have revised their growth forecasts upward, expecting Egypt to hit 4.4% to 4.5% GDP growth for the 2024/2025 fiscal year. This is a significant improvement from the near-stagnation seen during the crisis peak.
The strategy now is pretty clear. The goal is to stop relying on hot money and start making things. The government is pushing hard to empower the private sector (aiming to reduce the state’s heavy footprint on the economy) and focus on exports. The Al Mana jet fuel deal is the perfect example of this new direction. It combines foreign capital, local manufacturing, and a product made for export.
Egypt isn’t out of the woods yet, as debt payments are still high and the region remains volatile. But compared to the paralysis of two years ago, the country is moving, building, and most importantly, growing again.