The ongoing conflict in the Middle East may cast a fresh cloud over Ghana’s inflation outlook, as higher oil prices and tighter global financial conditions start weighing in, noted the West African country’s central bank governor.
Governor Johnson Asiama, under whose leadership the Bank of Ghana has been cutting interest rates since July 2025, when inflation started its slowdown, will deliver his latest monetary policy decision on March 18.
While issuing a warning about the Iran war potentially affecting the African country’s recovery prospects, Johnson Asiama also added that the ongoing rise in global gold prices could cushion the blow for the continent’s largest gold producer.
“Today there is a… threat to the disinflation trajectory and whatever decision the committee takes, our communication must reflect both the progress that has been achieved and the risks that remain,” Governor Johnson Asiama told reporters.
Ghana has leaned heavily on gold to stabilise its economy throughout 2025. As the yellow metal’s export earnings nearly doubled to around USD 20 billion in 2025 from USD 10.3 billion in 2024, it resulted in a sharp turnaround in the country’s current account deficit.
Discussing Ghana’s economic recovery, the GDP grew by 5.8% in Q4 of 2025, up from 4% in Q4 2024, stated Dr Alhassan Iddrisu, the Government Statistician, while informing the media that the latest numbers indicated stronger year-on-year economic momentum toward the year-end.
With a 7.1% growth, non-oil activities drove most of the expansion, compared with 4.8% in Q4 2024. Breaking down the non-oil data further, agriculture recorded improved performance, as the sector grew by 5.3%, up from 3.2% in Q4 2024, primarily driven by crops, which expanded by 6.6%.
Industrial activities improved, but the scope remained constrained. The tally stood at 1.9%, compared with 0.3% in Q4 2024. The sector’s performance was significantly affected by a 16.8% contraction in oil and gas production, despite positive growth in manufacturing (6.1%) and electricity (7.2%). The services sector, on the other hand, expanded by 8.6%, accounting for 50.6% of GDP, and contributing 63.4% of overall economic growth.