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OPEC+ announces June oil output hike amid UAE exit

The UAE had long resisted production quota of OPEC+, as the Gulf major's production capacity had grown to 4.8 million barrels per day

Seven of the world’s biggest oil-producing nations have agreed to increase their combined oil output by 188,000 barrels per day starting June 2026. It’s a move aimed at keeping global oil markets stable without flooding them with too much supply. The decision comes at a turbulent moment for the group, shaped by an ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and a high-profile departure by United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of its most powerful members.

The countries involved are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. All seven held a virtual meeting on May 3, 2026, to assess how the global oil market is doing and what adjustments are needed.

Notably absent from this gathering is the UAE, which was until recently OPEC’s third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Abu Dhabi announced its exit from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ framework effective May 1, 2026, citing long-term energy strategy. The UAE had long chafed under its production quota. Its production capacity had grown to 4.8 million barrels per day, but under its OPEC agreement it was only allowed to produce 3.2 million bpd. The country now plans to expand that capacity to five million barrels per day by 2027.

Compounding the pressure on oil markets is the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil flows. Iran’s control of the strait has severely constrained the UAE’s ability to export oil, though the UAE has been able to sell some crude via the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, exporting 1.7 million bpd of crude and refined fuels through that route. OPEC’s total production fell 27% to 20.79 million barrels per day in March after disruptions removed 7.88 million bpd from supply.

To understand what this means, a little background helps. Back in April 2023, these same nations had voluntarily agreed to cut their oil production (essentially pumping less oil than they were capable of) to prevent prices from crashing. The June 2026 increase of 188,000 barrels per day is a partial unwinding of those cuts. In other words, they are slowly turning the tap back up.

However, the group was careful to keep its options open. The statement made clear that these production increases can be slowed down, paused, or even reversed if market conditions deteriorate. The group also emphasised that it retains the same flexibility over the separate, additional production cuts it had announced in November 2023.

Another important thread in the announcement involves what the group calls “compensation.” Some member countries have been producing more oil than their agreed limits, essentially cheating on their own commitments. The seven nations confirmed they intend to make up for all such excess production dating back to January 2024 by cutting output more sharply in future months to balance the books. The June increase also gives these over-producing countries an opportunity to catch up on their compensation obligations faster.

All of this will be tracked by a dedicated oversight body called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which keeps tabs on how faithfully each country sticks to its commitments under what the group calls the Declaration of Cooperation.

The seven countries plan to meet every month going forward. Their next scheduled meeting is June 7, 2026.

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