The pivot to Asia and the lack of return on America’s continuing participation in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) area have been major topics of discussion in US policy circles in recent years. Washington’s conventional wisdom has frequently characterised recent United States-Middle East posturing as a “retreat” or “withdrawal,” warning that China or Russia could exploit the “vacuum” left behind.
One common example of the change is the détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran that Beijing mediated in 2023. Different engagement patterns have arisen, though, and they range between MENA countries and sub-regions, as our database makes clear. A more nuanced study is therefore necessary.
Consider the Peninsula of Arabia. This MENA sub-region, which includes war-torn Yemen and oil-exporting Saudi Arabia, has gained international attention recently. It is home to major oil-producing nations, essential but fragile underwater cables in the Red Sea, and chokepoints for world trade including the Straits of Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz. Ansar Allah, popularly known as the Houthis, has recently launched attacks on international shipping, highlighting the threats to peace and security coming from this sub-region.
Red Sea disruptions have important ramifications for all major powers: Due to the Houthi attacks, shipping costs from China to ports in the Mediterranean Sea increased by 44% in December 2023 for the United States and its allies. The obstruction of access to the Suez Canal has also affected Russia’s oil deliveries to India.
There is no easy way to explain the three big powers’ effect in this sub-region and how they interact with local players. Washington’s security and diplomatic ties with the Gulf states do not pose a threat, but other aspects of its geostrategic influence are coming under pressure from Beijing and Moscow.
Between 2012 and 2022, the number of state-to-state interactions, such as bilateral visits, between the United States and Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Yemen, either within the same nation or at a third location, surpassed the total number of visits made by Russia, China, and these states put together.
The frequency of bilateral meetings between the two countries lagged behind that of the United States, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assertions that his nation’s relations with the UAE were at an “unprecedented high level.”
However, there has been a notable development in the economic relations between China and the subregion, particularly in terms of commerce. Numerous elements could contribute to the explanation of this jump: Improved trade relations could result from pragmatic needs rather than always being a sign of improved diplomatic relations. Given the country’s growing oil demand, Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasised the need for energy security on several occasions. On the other hand, the US shale boom may help to explain some of the decline in trade volume between the US and many Gulf nations.
Between 2012 and 2022, US security connections with the Arabian Peninsula have undoubtedly improved, aside from trade partnerships. In 2022, US arms exports to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE considerably outpaced US exports to these nations a decade earlier.
In comparison to 2012, the expected amount of arms deliveries from the US to Kuwait in 2022 was more than ninety times higher. In contrast, China’s armaments exports to the sub-region continued to be comparatively stagnant. The United States is the only one of the three having military bases and a sizable soldier deployment to the region in addition to weaponry shipments.
The truth of American engagement in the Middle East is more nuanced and complicated than popular belief, despite worries about China or Russia filling the perceived American withdrawal from the region.
Although trade with China has increased, the United States still maintains strong diplomatic and security links throughout the Arabian Peninsula, according to the data, which displays a variety of patterns of influence and engagement. Furthermore, a comprehensive knowledge of the multi-aligned Middle East is necessary given the region’s continued strategic significance to international peace and security.