The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, known for its dynamic economies, diverse demographics, and reliance on oil and gas, is at the crossroads of several economic trends and challenges. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its economic projections for MENA in 2025, shedding light on the key forces likely to shape the region’s economic trajectory. This data-driven overview aims to explore the IMF’s insights into the region’s economic recovery, growth drivers, challenges, and the broader outlook for the upcoming year.
A Resilient Recovery In 2025
According to the latest IMF report, the MENA region is expected to experience a significant economic rebound in 2025, with growth projected at 4% (IMF, 2024). This optimistic projection marks an increase from the estimated 2.1% growth in 2024, which was dampened by oil production cuts, global economic uncertainty, and regional conflicts (IMF, 2024). The anticipated rebound in 2025 is expected to be driven by a combination of increased oil output, improved non-oil sector performance, and the easing of geopolitical tensions.
Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy, is projected to be one of the primary drivers of this recovery, with its economic growth forecast to reach 4.4% in 2025, compared to a modest 1.3% in 2024 (IMF, 2024). The rebound in Saudi Arabia’s growth is largely attributed to increased oil production as OPEC+ restrictions are expected to be relaxed. This increase in oil output will not only support domestic economic activity but also boost government revenues, enabling greater public spending and investment. Saudi Arabia’s public spending is expected to increase by 7% in 2025, with an estimated budget allocation of USD 295 billion (Ministry of Finance, Saudi Arabia, 2024).
Egypt, another major economy in the MENA region, is also projected to see a steady improvement, with growth expected to accelerate to 4.0% by June 2025 (IMF, 2024). The Egyptian economy, which has been under pressure from austerity measures and inflation, is likely to benefit from reforms implemented under the IMF programme, which aim to stabilise public finances and encourage private-sector growth. Growth in Egypt is forecasted to pick up further in the following years, reaching 4.7% in 2025/26 and 5.3% in 2026/27 (IMF, 2024). These reforms include the reduction of energy subsidies by 15%, and an increase in foreign direct investment by 10% year-over-year (Central Bank of Egypt, 2024).
Oil Production And Its Impact
One of the critical factors influencing the MENA region’s economic outlook is the dynamics of oil production and pricing. The IMF has highlighted that increased oil output, especially from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, will be a key driver of growth in 2025 (IMF, 2024). The anticipated easing of OPEC+ production cuts will allow these countries to ramp up production, benefiting from higher global demand as major economies recover from the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical tensions. Oil production in Saudi Arabia is expected to increase to 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by mid-2025, up from 9.7 million bpd in 2024 (OPEC, 2024).
Increased oil production is expected to boost revenues for oil-exporting countries, allowing them to enhance public spending and investment in critical sectors such as infrastructure, health, and education. For instance, the UAE plans to increase infrastructure investment by USD 25 billion in 2025, focusing on transport and renewable energy projects (UAE Ministry of Economy, 2024). This, in turn, is likely to create a positive spillover effect on the broader MENA economy, driving growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors.
However, the IMF has also cautioned that the region remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, which could pose risks to fiscal stability and growth prospects. The IMF estimates that a USD 10 decrease in oil prices could reduce the region’s GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points (IMF, 2024).
Non-Oil Sector Development
While oil remains a crucial part of the MENA economy, the IMF has emphasised the importance of diversifying economic growth beyond the energy sector. The non-oil sector is projected to play an increasingly vital role in the region’s economic recovery in 2025, driven by a combination of government reforms, investment in new industries, and increased private-sector activity (IMF, 2024).
In Saudi Arabia, the Vision 2030 initiative, aimed at reducing the country’s dependence on oil and fostering a more diversified economy, is expected to yield positive results. The IMF projects that growth in the non-oil sector will accelerate as investments in sectors such as tourism, technology, and renewable energy gain traction.
Saudi Arabia has announced plans to invest $60 billion in renewable energy projects by 2030, with USD 15 billion allocated for 2025 alone (Saudi Vision 2030 Report, 2024). Similarly, the UAE’s focus on transforming itself into a global hub for finance, trade, and innovation is likely to bolster non-oil growth in 2025, with an expected 5% increase in non-oil GDP (UAE Ministry of Economy, 2024).
In Egypt, structural reforms under the IMF-backed programme are expected to improve the business climate, attract foreign investment, and boost non-oil growth. The Egyptian government has also been working to expand its industrial base, promote exports, and enhance the competitiveness of its private sector, all of which are expected to contribute to stronger non-oil sector growth in the coming year. Non-oil exports are projected to increase by 8% in 2025, driven by higher demand for textiles and agricultural products (Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2024).
Inflation And Fiscal Challenges
Despite the positive growth outlook, the IMF has identified several challenges that could weigh on the MENA region’s economic prospects in 2025. Inflation remains a key concern, particularly in countries like Egypt, where rising food and energy prices have eroded household purchasing power and increased the cost of living. Inflation in Egypt is projected to reach 15% in 2025, up from 13% in 2024, driven largely by supply chain disruptions and higher import costs (Central Bank of Egypt, 2024). The IMF has urged governments in the region to adopt targeted measures to address inflation, such as improving supply chains, enhancing agricultural productivity, and providing targeted subsidies to vulnerable households.
Fiscal challenges also remain a significant issue for several MENA countries, particularly those with high levels of public debt. The IMF has emphasised the importance of fiscal consolidation and prudent public spending to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. In this context, countries like Egypt and Tunisia, which have been grappling with high debt burdens, are expected to continue implementing austerity measures and structural reforms aimed at improving public finances and reducing fiscal deficits. Tunisia’s public debt is projected to decline from 90% of GDP in 2024 to 87% by the end of 2025 as a result of these measures (IMF, 2024).
Geopolitical Risks And Uncertainty
Geopolitical tensions have long been a source of economic uncertainty in the MENA region, and 2025 is no exception. The IMF has highlighted that ongoing conflicts and political instability in certain parts of the region could pose risks to the overall economic outlook. For instance, the conflict in Yemen, political instability in Lebanon, and tensions in Iraq and Syria are likely to continue impacting investor confidence and economic activity in these countries (IMF, 2024).
The recent escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has also added a layer of uncertainty to the region’s economic prospects. The IMF has warned that any further escalation could disrupt trade, investment, and economic growth in the wider MENA region. In this context, the IMF has called for increased diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts and promote stability, which are crucial for fostering a conducive environment for economic growth. The potential economic impact of these conflicts is estimated to reduce regional GDP growth by up to 0.5 percentage points if left unresolved (IMF, 2024).
The Role Of Reforms And International Support
The IMF has underscored the importance of continued economic reforms and international support in ensuring a sustainable recovery for the MENA region in 2025. Structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment, enhancing governance, and promoting private-sector development are expected to be key drivers of growth in the coming year (IMF, 2024).
In addition, international support, including financial assistance from the IMF and other international organisations, will play a crucial role in helping countries in the region address their fiscal challenges and implement necessary reforms. The IMF has called on the international community to provide timely and adequate support to vulnerable countries in the region, particularly those facing significant fiscal and economic challenges. In 2024, the IMF provided USD 3.5 billion in financial assistance to countries such as Tunisia and Lebanon, which are expected to continue receiving support in 2025 (IMF, 2024).
To achieve sustainable and inclusive growth, the MENA region will need to continue diversifying its economies, investing in human capital, and promoting private-sector development. Governments will also need to adopt targeted measures to address inflation, improve fiscal sustainability, and mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks. With the right mix of policies and international support, the MENA region has the potential to achieve a resilient and inclusive economic recovery in 2025.
As the world looks to recover from the economic disruptions of recent years, the MENA region’s ability to navigate its unique challenges and capitalise on its opportunities will be crucial in shaping its future economic trajectory. The IMF’s projections provide a roadmap for what lies ahead, but the outcome will depend on the region’s ability to implement reforms, foster stability, and promote sustainable growth.