According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), public investment, liquefied natural gas spillovers, and a robust tourism industry are expected to support Qatar’s real gross domestic product growth of 2% in 2024–2025.
A significant rise in LNG production and the initial gains from reforms implemented under the Third National Development Strategy are expected to propel the Gulf nation’s medium-term growth to an average of 4.75%, IMF noted.
The fund also predicted that, rather than reflecting short-term price swings, Qatar’s inflation would moderate to an average annual rate of 1% in 2024 before levelling off at about 2% over the medium run.
According to Consumer Price Index data released in early February, the nation’s annual inflation rate decreased from 0.24 in November to 0.95 in December. According to the IMF’s forecast, inflation will stay low over the next several years.
“With lower hydrocarbon prices, both the current account and fiscal surpluses narrowed in 2023, to 17% of GDP and 5.5% of GDP, respectively. The twin surpluses moderated further in 2024,” the statement said.
“Over the medium, as Qatar’s LNG production expands massively, both the current and fiscal accounts will likely remain in surpluses, albeit declining as a share of GDP, as hydrocarbon prices are projected to fall,” it added.
The banking industry in Qatar is still robust, with banks that are profitable, liquid, and well-capitalised.
IMF noted that in the third quarter of 2024, the return on equity was 14.5%, while the capital adequacy ratio was close to 20%.
After the Qatar Central Bank took steps to lower banks’ net short-term foreign liabilities, non-resident deposits sharply decreased. Lenders also extended the average maturity and diversified their foreign funding sources.
“Qatar has started to implement the ambitious Third National Development Strategy to build a more diversified, knowledge-based, and private sector-driven economy. Guided by NDS3, reform momentum has strengthened significantly, including attracting and retaining high-skilled expatriate workers, fostering innovation, promoting public-private partnerships, and further improving the business efficiency,” the statement concluded.