Being the world’s most economical oil producer has long been a source of pride for Saudi Arabia, which has made full use of this advantage. These days, a diverse economy with big spending plans is making the lowest cost less important. What counts is the breakeven cost of oil. And that will increase.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning earlier in 2024, stating that for the Kingdom to break even, the price of oil would need to be USD 96.20 per barrel. The IMF warned that much less would result in another yearly deficit for the Gulf economy, apart from ascribing the upward revision to Saudi Arabia’s spending on the “Vision 2030” diversification agenda and its choice to lower daily oil production to support oil prices.
The Saudis’ breakeven price and spending remain high because they disregarded the tacit suggestion to raise output to exceed 10 million barrels per day. With a USD 124 billion overall expenditure in 2023, the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, or PIF for short, surpassed all other sovereign wealth funds in the world’s spending rankings.
These investments came from both domestic sources (such as the Neom smart city megaproject and the recently established Riyadh Air airline) and foreign sources (such as energy efficiency projects and electric car purchases).
However, PIF’s assets significantly decreased as a result of this spending binge, falling from nearly USD 105 billion in 2022 to USD 37 billion as of September 2023. Since then, these assets have increased in value; according to Bloomberg, the cash part of those assets increased from USD 15 billion in September 2023 to USD 65 billion this July. Furthermore, the sovereign wealth fund turned a profit in 2023 following a losing year in 2022. Even still, some analysts feel that the oil price needed to reach budget breakeven is still too high.
According to Middle East Institute expert Li-Chen Sim, who spoke to CNBC, “Saudi Arabia would have large budgetary needs at least until 2030 due to the necessity to demonstrate some substantial outcome in key Vision 2030 projects and to prepare for and host big sporting and cultural events.”
The analyst continued, “The Kingdom’s fiscal breakeven price is likely to rise perhaps to around USD 100 amidst all this amidst expected growth in oil supply from the United States, Guyana, Brazil, Canada, and even the UAE and possibly anaemic oil consumption growth in China, the Kingdom’s largest oil customer.”
Bearish oil price analysts frequently cite growing non-OPEC oil production while also highlighting slowing demand growth from China, the world’s largest crude importer. According to the reasoning, the slower rise in China’s oil demand and the steadily increasing supply from non-OPEC countries will cause oil prices to remain lower for longer.
However, neither the rate of expansion in output nor the decline in China’s oil demand are certain. For example, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a deceleration in production growth in 2024 following an unexpected spike of one million barrels per day in 2023. The federal agency, which has erred in the past, is most likely correct this time. Production decision-making in the sector is consolidating into a smaller number of hands.
As Exxon continues to operate new wells and as Brazil aims to achieve significant output growth, Guyana’s production will probably continue to rise rapidly. However, this expansion will probably be contingent upon global pricing, much like that of the United States. These three might undoubtedly make life more difficult for Saudi Arabia, but since low oil prices are detrimental to everyone, they might not be as severe as they might appear.
That being said, there is a disadvantage to the notion that increased non-OPEC production is a good idea to bring up. Despite its issues with breaking even, the Kingdom remains the world’s most affordable producer of crude oil. It could theoretically weather a prolonged oil price downturn better than Brazilian pre-salt field operators and American shale drillers, although it might postpone some of its planned expenditures if needed.
Furthermore, as Tim Callen, a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, points out in an article, the breakeven oil price may not offer a true window into the state of an economy.
“Saudi Arabia experiences significant and swift fluctuations in oil production and expenditures. Oil production is more unpredictable for a country that consistently produces at full capacity due to its significant spare oil production capacity and its proven policy of aggressively changing production depending on demand and supply situations in the global market. Government expenditure has historically followed an increase in oil prices, thus the market and breakeven oil price frequently fluctuate in tandem,” he pointed out.
Put differently, it is true, at least partially, that Saudi Arabia is having financial difficulties because it is unable to fulfil the ends of its projected budget. Megaprojects may experience delays, as they did in the past when the pricing climate was not ideal.
Financing options also include foreign debt markets, where Saudi bonds seem to be very popular, similar to Aramco shares. Despite the shift and non-OPEC output increases, it appears that oil-dependent economies continue to attract investors.