Anticipating increased contributions from the non-oil manufacturing and services sectors, along with expectations of accelerated growth supported by the continuation of the monetary policy easing cycle, the Central Bank of Egypt has raised its economic growth forecast to 5.1% for the 2025/26 fiscal year and 5.5% for 2026/27, up from previous projections of 4.8% and 5.1%, respectively.
“This (rise in growth projections) is expected to support real growth in credit extended to the private sector in the coming period, therefore boosting economic activity,” according to the central bank’s statement.
The revised forecast reflects Egypt’s GDP growth of 5.3% in the first quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking the strongest expansion in over three years. Minister of Planning and Economic Development, Rania Al-Mashat, shared this information in November 2025. She emphasised that the acceleration was fuelled by enhancements in productive sectors.
According to the data published by her ministry in September 2025, the economy expanded 4.4% in fiscal year 2024/25, supported by a strong fourth quarter when growth reached a three-year high of 5%.
While talking about Egypt’s latest growth prospects, the country’s central bank said, “Furthermore, forecasts are further strengthened by an anticipated stronger performance in the extractive sector, underpinned by multiple successful onshore and offshore discoveries of crude oil and natural gas, which are expected to gradually increase domestic production.”
“Additionally, the growth outlook is further reinforced by a projected rebound in Suez Canal activity during the current fiscal year, assuming the normalisation of maritime traffic in the Red Sea in light of the recent peace deal in Gaza, which has restored confidence and prompted the return of shipping lines through the Canal, including Maersk and CMA CGM,” it added.
The report said continued strength in manufacturing, services, and Suez Canal activity is likely to support real GDP growth throughout the forecast horizon. Discussing the direction of inflation in the North African country, the analysis further indicated that the ratio will keep slowing down throughout 2026, although it will remain slightly higher than the original forecast, before returning to the target level by Q4 2026.
“As such, annual headline inflation is expected to average 12.5% and 9.0% in fiscal years 2025/26 and 2026/27, respectively,” the report concluded.