China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (roughly 30% of the global total), has pledged to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. In recent years, the country has made impressive advances in clean energy but has also grappled with persistent reliance on coal.
Data for 2024 underscore this mixed picture. China’s carbon intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) fell by 3.4% in 2024, a healthy decline but short of the 3.9% target set for that year. Because China’s economy grew strongly (official GDP +5%), total CO₂ still edged up by about 0.8% in 2024.
Electricity demand surged by 6.8% over the year, so even though renewables were rapidly deployed, fossil fuel use did not shrink. In fact, 2023 to 2024 saw a surge in coal power plant approvals, and coal generation in 2024 reached the highest level in a decade.
On the bright side, China is installing renewable energy at a record pace. In 2024, it added 373 GW of new clean generation, 23% more than in 2023, so that renewables now make up 86% of all new capacity. Total wind plus solar capacity stands at roughly 1.41 terawatts (TW) – already above the 2030 target of 1.2 TW. Government data show wind and solar together met about 14.5% of the nation’s energy needs in 2024, with hydropower at 13.4%.
Renewable sources supplied roughly 75% of the year’s incremental power demand, around 500 out of 610 TWh. In the words of one consultant, this “massive amount of clean energy” is equivalent to Germany’s entire annual consumption and demonstrates China’s green capacity boom. Nuclear and new hydro are also expanding, with hydro output rising to 1.43 TWh in 2024.
Analysts note that while China’s total fossil generation continues to grow (thermal power climbed from 4.3 TWh in 2015 to 6.4 TWh in 2024), the growth rate of renewables is much higher (solar grew 35.7% per year since 2015, wind 18.3%).
China’s policy apparatus is evolving in step. In August 2024, the State Council unveiled a plan to shift from controlling energy use to explicitly capping carbon emissions. Over the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026 to 2030), China will create detailed carbon accounting and monitoring systems for industries and products.
By the end of 2025, the goal is to implement “dual controls” on total carbon emissions and carbon intensity nationwide. The 2024 to 2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Plan (released May 2024) reinforces these priorities. It targets cuts in high-emission industries like steel, petrochemicals, and cement, and commits to replacing old coal plants with cleaner alternatives.
A headline goal is to raise non-fossil power to approximately 39% of China’s electricity by 2025 (up from 36.2% in 2022). The plan also calls for massive grid upgrades, such as ultra-long transmission lines, “smart” grids, and energy storage, to better absorb renewables. In May 2025, officials rolled out a National Climate Standards Plan, detailing dozens of new standards for climate data, emissions accounting, and carbon markets.
Meanwhile, China’s draft Ecological and Environmental Code (released April 2025) legally enshrines climate goals: it mandates “dual controls” on carbon, strict carbon accounting systems, and expansion of carbon sinks to offset emissions. These regulatory moves indicate Beijing is preparing the machinery for tighter carbon targets in the next decade.
Yet experts caution that China is still behind schedule. International analysts at Climate Action Tracker report China is “significantly off track” on its 14th Five-Year Plan targets for carbon intensity. By the end of 2024, China had only cut CO₂ intensity by 12% since 2020, making the 2025 target of –18% increasingly difficult. China’s government itself acknowledged this shortfall: 2024’s official carbon-intensity drop of 3.4% fell short of the 3.9% goal.
In plain terms, China may not hit its 2025 energy and emissions objectives under current policies. One reason is booming energy demand: factories, EV production, and data centres are driving consumption up. In 2024, China’s three major thermoelectric sectors – steel, cement, and chemicals – consumed more coal than projected, and record-breaking heatwaves in the summer reduced hydropower output, forcing extra coal use.
China launched the world’s largest carbon-trading system (ETS) in 2021, covering the power sector, and there are now pilot markets for industry. In principle, this should cap some emissions, but prices have stayed low, and some experts say the system needs broadening.
There are also billions of dollars flowing into green industries: China remains by far the world’s leading producer of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries, supplying roughly 80%, 60%, and 75% of global markets, respectively. These “new quality forces” of electric vehicles and clean tech added over 10% to GDP in 2024.
Internationally, China has signalled continued commitment: it will submit a 2035 climate action plan (its first-ever post-2030 NDC) ahead of COP30, and officials say they intend to honour the 2060 neutrality goal regardless of geopolitical strains.
In summary, China’s path to neutrality is mixed. On one hand, its renewable build-out has outpaced targets (hit early!), and new laws promise more control over carbon. On the other hand, coal and energy use are still rising, and short-term emissions intensity goals are likely to be missed.
Analysts stress that to align with 2060, China will need deeper cuts and possibly absolute caps. As one climate think tank put it, “bridging the shortfall” will require “significantly greater climate ambition” in the next five-year plan. For now, China’s leaders must balance growth and security against global pressure to decarbonise – a delicate tightrope that will define the country’s climate legacy in the coming decade.