Declaring at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020 that China would reach peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, Chinese President Xi Jinping shocked the world. China, the biggest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, committed boldly and marked a turning point in the global climate battle.
Five years into this proclamation, nonetheless, important questions remain: Is China on course to reach this target? What chances and challenges does it encounter? How does China compare to the climate plans of other major emitters?
Is China Headed In The Right Direction?
How one defines “on track” will determine the response. China has, on the one hand, moved decisively to change its energy source. China leads the world in renewable energy investment, now accounting for more than half of all global expenditures on solar, wind, and hydropower. China built more than 230 GW of renewable capacity in 2023 alone, more than anywhere else taken together.
Another shining point is electric cars (EVs). Supported by strong industrial policies, consumer subsidies, and a well-integrated supply chain, China has the biggest EV market worldwide. Globally, leaders in EVs and battery technologies today are companies like BYD and CATL.
On fossil fuels, the picture is less bright, though. China is fast approving and building fresh coal-fired power plants. Although these plants are hailed as “flexible” or “cleaner,” coal technologies still carry long-term carbon obligations.
China boasts around 200 GW of coal power in development as of 2024, more than anywhere else combined. This dual-track approach underscores the conflict between climate ambition and economic stability.
Green Technology And Financial Revolution
Despite the challenges, China has substantial financial opportunities arising from its goal of achieving carbon neutrality. From solar panels to EV batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, the green technology industry presents not only emissions reduction but also worldwide commercial supremacy.
China has positioned itself as a major actor in rare earth materials and battery manufacturing and already controls over 80% of the worldwide solar supply chain. China gains from exporting and licensing as Western nations speed their transformations, even as it domesticates most of its clean energy infrastructure.
Urban planning and building present still another possibility. China has the size to test green building technologies, smart grids, and low-carbon transportation at an unheard-of level since more than 60% of its population lives in cities.
Political Will, Energy Security, And Economic Growth
The tension between climate action and economic growth is one of the most time-sensitive issues. China remains a developing nation for the most part, where industrial reliance on fossil fuels, income disparity, and energy poverty are still prevalent. If not managed carefully, rapid decarbonisation poses a risk of causing societal unrest and job losses.
Another worry is energy security. China depends much on imports of natural gas and oil, which makes it sensitive to geopolitical changes. Abundant and homegrown, coal provides a cushion. Thus, people sometimes view coal not only as an energy source but also as a geopolitical insurance policy.
Additionally, there are political and institutional limitations. Local governments, who primarily evaluate their performance based on economic criteria, typically manage the implementation of the national government’s high goals.
Such situations can result in “policy dissonance,” in which local officials accept polluting projects meant to spur temporary development, therefore compromising national climate targets.
Comparison With Other Nations
China is not alone in its commitment to carbon neutrality worldwide; its timetable is more modest than those of wealthy countries. Under present policies, the United States also targets net zero by 2050; the European Union (EU) does the same. Reflecting its developmental needs, India has established a 2070 aim.
But China’s diplomatic situation is nuanced. China’s emissions, which are historically lower due to being a late starter compared to the West and economically focused on prioritising development, shape its position.
Such behaviour offers it moral ground in international climate negotiations, but it also attracts criticism, particularly when new coal projects are approved even following world conferences.
Though this difference is closing quickly, China still emits significantly less than the United States. The nation is actively influencing global climate financing systems through the Belt and Road Initiative’s new “green” rebranding and its role in South-South climate cooperation.
An Uphill But Possible Reversal
Is this carbon neutrality by 2060 possible for China? In terms of engineering, politics and economics there are still enormous difficulties ahead.
As evidenced by its zero-COVID response, industrial scale, and infrastructural megaprojects, the Chinese Communist Party has demonstrated a remarkable capacity for mobilisation when aligned with national interests. Should carbon neutrality take centre stage as a fundamental gauge of political performance and national security, transformation might happen rapidly.
However, we must resolve the current conflict between green rhetoric and the realities of fossil fuels. Essential will be a “slow peak” of emissions followed by a sharp, well-coordinated fall in the 2030s. Reforms in electricity markets, carbon pricing, openness systems, and matching local government with national climate goals will be crucial here.
China now boasts the tools, incentives, and technological edge needed. Whether political will, financial sensibility, and long-term vision can remain in line over the next three decades is yet unknown. The world is observing intently, and should China succeed, others could follow.
And should it fail, the expenses will not only be their own. The consequences will affect the entire world we inhabit.