In May, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) revised its growth forecasts for 2025 and beyond, while issuing a warning that trade tariffs are fuelling global economic uncertainty. Since taking office in January, United States President Donald Trump has launched a hard-line campaign to rectify what he claims are unfair trade imbalances, through a measure called “reciprocal tariffs.”
His administration has imposed hefty levies on Washington’s partners and adversaries alike, affecting imports of key products into the world’s largest economy, including steel and automobiles. The BOJ now expects Japan’s GDP to rise 0.5% in fiscal 2025, which began in April, down from its previous estimate of 1.1%. In fiscal 2026, the apex banking body expects the domestic economy to expand by 0.7%, down from the previously forecast 1.0%.
Policymakers and economists are paying close attention to the “oshikatsu” phenomenon, recognising it as a growing driver of consumer spending in Japan. The trend has captured the interest of analysts, particularly as it taps into a demographic of “mostly 20- and 30-somethings” who are increasingly investing time and money into supporting their favourite celebrities, anime characters, or cuddly mascots.
This generation’s enthusiasm for “oshi” (the Japanese term for the object of one’s adoration) is seen as a key factor in boosting Japan’s consumer culture. With the rise of oshikatsu, there’s optimism that the trend can stimulate greater economic activity, particularly as younger generations continue to engage in these fan-driven activities.
Policymakers bet big
As a result, the explosive growth of oshikatsu (a term coined in recent years from the Japanese words for push and activity) has caught the attention of economists, who see it as a potential way to boost Japan’s sluggish consumption.
In the opinion of Nomura Securities analyst Kohei Okazaki, the timing of oshikatsu’s rise couldn’t be better, as many companies are planning their biggest pay rises in 34 years, particularly for younger workers who are in short supply in a tight and ageing job market.
“The 20-somethings, who’ll probably receive another big pay rise in this spring’s wage talks, are more proactive about oshikatsu than other age groups, and there’s a high possibility that spending by this age group will continue to grow this year,” he said.
A joint survey by Tokyo-based marketing firms CDG and Oshicoco in January estimated that some 14 million people could be engaged in this year’s oshikatsu, making up about 11% of Japan’s population. With respondents spending an average of 250,000¥ ($1,700) a year, the survey suggested a potential 3.5 trillion-yen contribution from oshikatsu to the world’s fourth-largest economy.
While that accounts for only 2.1% of Japan’s total annual retail sales, analysts suggest the positive knock-on impact on consumption is expected to be larger.
Okazaki said, “It’s safe to say that consumption expenditure due to oshikatsu is on an increasing trend,” adding that non-essential spending appeared to be holding steady even as inflation prompts many to pinch pennies elsewhere.
In the oshikatsu madness, a considerable part of the support has become economic in nature. Fans attend events and concerts, or buy merchandise such as CDs, posters, and other collectables. Other forms of oshikatsu involve spreading the fame of their idol by sharing content about their oshi, engaging in social media campaigns, and writing fan fiction or drawing fan art.
Now, corporate Japan is sensing an opportunity in oshikatsu. There has been a burst of inflation in recent years, caused by pandemic supply chain disruption and geopolitical shocks. On the other hand, Japanese consumers have reduced their spending.
However, with wages set to rise again for the third time in three years, the Shigeru Ishiba government is cautiously optimistic that economic growth can be rekindled through consumer-driven spending. Entertainment and media companies are looking to oshikatsu as a potential driver of this, although it is unclear whether the upcoming pay hikes will be sufficient.
Reports indicate that many of Japan’s biggest companies, from tech conglomerates to automaker Toyota, have met union demands for substantial wage hikes for a third consecutive year, aiming to help workers cope with inflation and retain staff amid labour shortages.
As annual ‘shunto’ or ‘spring labour offensive’ negotiations at top firms are concluded in March 2025, electronics conglomerate Hitachi led by announcing a record 6.2% increase in monthly wages, in line with union demands.
Not only unions but policymakers have pushed for robust pay hikes, given sharply higher food prices and record corporate profits on the back of a weak yen. While economists expect corporate Japan’s average pay hike for 2025 to be similar to last year’s 5.1% rise, which marked the sharpest increase in 33 years and allowed the central bank to exit its decade-long super-loose monetary policy, it remains unclear whether the hikes will be strong enough to spur consumer spending and encourage the Bank of Japan to increase its policy rate more aggressively.
Still, the Ishiba government expects these salary hikes to result in people spending big during oshikatsu, driving higher domestic consumption. In fact, oshikatsu is no longer solely the purview of subcultures or young people; it has made inroads with older age groups in Japan as well.
According to a 2024 survey by Japanese marketing research company Harumeku, 46% of women in their 50s have an oshi that they support financially. Older generations tend to have more money to spend, especially after their own children have finished their education.
Another survey of mothers in Japan, conducted by a private company (Mamasta Select, an information site for mothers operated by Interspace Co.), based in Tokyo in 2024, found that nearly 60% of them engaged in some form of oshikatsu, with some spending over 1 million yen (around $6,370) a year on the pursuit.
When asked, “Do you engage in oshikatsu?” a total of 58.3% said they do or have done so. The objects of their support, or “oshi,” ranged from actors and artists to sports teams, theme park characters, and both 2D and 3D interests. The primary methods of support included attending performances or matches in which those oshi appeared, and purchasing related merchandise.
When asked about their yearly budget for oshikatsu, the most popular answer was “less than 50,000¥ (about $320),” selected by 68.5% of respondents. Next was “from 50,000¥ to less than 300,000¥ (about $1,910)” at 20.7%; “from 300,000¥ to less than 1 million yen” at 5.7%; and “over 1 million yen” at 5.1%. The results showed that while close to 70% keep their oshikatsu spending under 50,000¥ a year, over 10% splash out and spend at least 300,000¥ annually.
A gender angle
While husbands in the traditional Japanese household are seen as breadwinners, in oshikatsu, it is more often women who financially support young men. How much fans spend on their oshi depends.
According to a recent survey (conducted in January 2025) by Japanese marketing company CDG and Oshicoco, an advertising agency specialising in oshikatsu, the average amount fans spend on activities related to their oshis is 250,000¥ (about £1,300) annually. This contributes an estimated 3.5 trillion yen (£18.8 billion) to the Japanese economy each year and accounts for 2.1% of Japan’s total annual retail sales.
The number of people who support their favourite idols is approximately 13.84 million. This is an increase of 2.5 million from the previous year, with the increase particularly notable among women in their early 30s. Some 16.7% of respondents answered that they were “actively supporting their favourite idols,” up 2.6 percentage points from the previous survey in January 2024. Converted into population terms, the number of people who are “actively supporting their favourite idols” is 13.84 million, an increase of about 2.5 million from 11.36 million in the previous survey.
“This is particularly notable for women in their early 30s, who increased by 8.2 percentage points to 30.4%. Following the already high number of women in their teens and twenties, this means that one in three women in their early 30s is also active in supporting their favourite idols,” the CDG and Oshicoco survey noted further.
The average expenditure on oshikatsu is about 250,000¥ per year. In Japan as a whole, about 3.5 trillion yen is spent on oshikatsu per year.
“When asked how much they spent on their idol activities over the course of a year, the average was 255,035¥ per person. Based on this per capita expenditure and the number of people involved in oshikatsu, the total amount spent on oshikatsu by Japanese men and women aged 15 to 69 in a year was calculated to be approximately 3.5 trillion yen. Previous surveys and interviews conducted by the Oshikatsu Research Institute have shown that oshikatsu generates a variety of related consumption, but this is the first time we have been able to visualise the total amount of oshikatsu consumption, which is approximately the size of the oshikatsu market,” the study noted.
Will oshikatsu in 2025 do the much-needed magic for the ailing Japanese economy? In the words of senior business journalist Steven Vass, “It will drive up consumer spending. But I doubt it will have the impact on the Japanese economy that the authorities are hoping for. For the younger fans, the danger is that government approval will kill any kind of cool clout, making oshikatsu less appealing to these people in the long run. And if you support an oshi who has not yet made it, you may have a stronger sense that your support matters. Hence, some of the spending will go directly to individuals, rather than to established corporate superstars. But it’s also possible that struggling young oshis may spend more of this money than established celebrities.”
Is Gen Z bearing the burden?
Despite Japan experiencing a boom in oshikatsu, new data shows many fans are concerned about the financial toll that supporting their favourites is taking on their pocketbooks and lives.
A survey in 2024 by VideoResearch of 4,234 men and women between ages 15 and 69 found that 62.1% of 15 to 26-year-olds (so-called Gen Z) have an oshi. However, even 40.4% of 27-42-year-olds and 27.1% of those between 43 and 58 said they have one. Among Gen X (the demographic generation born between the mid-1960s and the early 1980s), 40% said they’d been engaged in oshikatsu for 10 years or more.
“Gen Xers and those over 59 were more likely to identify their oshi as a singer, band, or musician, followed by an idol. By contrast, most in Gen Z and Gen Y said their oshi was an idol, followed by an anime or manga character. YouTubers and VTubers ranked low for Gen Z (7th and 9th, respectively) and didn’t rank at all for Gen Y and senior fans. That makes oshikatsu big business in Japan. Indeed, even industries unconnected to entertainment are looking for ways to cash in,” reported Unseen Japan, which decoded the study further.
Another survey by the economic magazine Toyo Keizai in 2024 highlighted the dark side of oshi activity promotion. The study, conducted through November and December, of 3,516 people from their 20s to 70s, asked if fans considered oshikatsu a financial burden. Almost 50% of 20-year-olds said yes. Over 40% of 30 and 40-year-olds said that feeding money to their oshis dented their pocketbooks.
Of those polled, almost 500 people said the biggest financial burden was buying goods related to their oshi. Another 450 or so indicated that event fees were the heaviest burden.
According to the “Oshinomics” report from Japanese advertising and public relations company Hakuhodo, teenage girls mentioned spending half of their disposable income on oshikatsu activities.
For many people in this group, their money is spent on male underground idols, performers at small clubs, or at male-themed concept cafes where minors are permitted. Some are concerned that the financial strain of oshikatsu might lead to unhealthy spending habits and an excessive devotion of time and money to their favourite idols.
Of course, no one in Japan is going to put the brakes on oshikatsu, as the money generated will drive up domestic consumption, which the nation’s sagging economy badly needs now. However, experts see the move carrying a risk that “some people’s love for their idols will morph into something ugly and unhealthy.”
Psychiatrist Nishimura Kotaro, who specialises in addiction issues, said that oshikatsu addiction is real, labelling it a form of relationship addiction that can be as serious as an alcohol or gambling addiction.
“It’s a matter of personal choice if the activities aren’t problematic and you can sustain your participation in society. If you cross that line, it spirals out of control,” he concluded.