Qatar will likely be one of the fastest-growing economies in the Gulf region in 2026, with real GDP growth forecast to reach 5.2%, driven by rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity, stronger export performance, and sustained diversification-related investment, said Fitch Solutions’ latest “MENA Macro Report.”
Fitch Solutions projects overall economic growth across the GCC to accelerate from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, supported by higher hydrocarbon output and resilient non-oil activity. Within the bloc, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are expected to post the strongest growth rates, reflecting their scale, fiscal capacity, and ongoing structural reforms, especially on the diversification front.
According to the “MENA Macro Report,” Qatar’s growth outlook has been underpinned by the phasing out of OPEC+ production curbs and the continued expansion of its LNG production capacity, which will further lift hydrocarbon output and exports. Amid the strong global demand for LNG, Qatar is well-positioned to benefit from higher export volumes, reinforcing the nation’s economic momentum and external balances.
“Alongside hydrocarbons, non-oil growth is expected to remain robust. Analysts at the research entity highlighted that trade agreements, strong re-export activity, expanding manufacturing capacity, and solid tourism performance will continue to support non-oil exports across the GCC, with Qatar benefiting from these regional tailwinds. Despite a softer oil price environment, diversification momentum in Qatar and the wider Gulf is expected to persist,” reported The Peninsula.
According to Fitch Solutions, due to the significant share of diversification-related projects implemented by Qatar government-related entities and investment funds, independent financing can be accessed without placing additional strain on the Gulf nation’s public finances. Lower borrowing costs across the Middle East are also expected to support investment activity, encouraging capital spending and private-sector participation in key growth-oriented sectors.
Continuing further, Fitch Solutions forecasts the weighted average MENA (Middle East and North Africa) current account surplus to ease slightly from 1.8% of GDP in 2025 to 1.6% in 2026, reflecting lower oil prices and strong import growth. Among hydrocarbon exporters, the surplus is expected to narrow from 2.9% to 2.7% of GDP.
However, the country’s external position is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026. Researchers stressed that surpluses in Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain, as well as deficits in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iraq, are projected to widen or narrow by less than 0.5 percentage points next year, underscoring the country’s continued external resilience.