With extreme weather events becoming increasingly frequent and intense, agriculture and food systems are suffering. These occurrences have caused acute food insecurity to surge from 149 million before the COVID-19 pandemic to 333 million in 2023, according to the State of the Global Climate Report.
The agriculture industry, which supports millions, contributed to 23% of natural disaster damages between 2007 and 2022. Droughts alone caused 65% of these losses, reducing agricultural production and livestock losses to USD 3.8 trillion over 30 years.
Countries in the region produce less than 5% of global carbon emissions yet bear the brunt of climate change. A region that relies heavily on agriculture to meet its food needs and support its population is at risk of food and agricultural security due to rising temperatures twice as fast as the global average and water scarcity making it one of the driest.
North African Water Crisis Threatens Crops
Morocco and Algeria face catastrophic droughts that threaten food security. The World Meteorological Organisation has warned of severe crop damage, declining rainfall, and water scarcity, which have reduced agricultural production.
Morocco lost 28% of its rainfall in 2023, reducing agricultural output by 20%. Cereal production fell 80% in Tunisia and 12% in Algeria. The World Meteorological Organisation predicts 118 million Africans will face droughts and flooding by 2030, calling the situation “historic”.
Climate change also threatens Egypt’s agriculture industry, which accounts for 12% of the North African nation’s GDP. Saltwater intrusion and rising sea levels threaten the Nile Delta, the country’s agricultural heartland, and could reduce agricultural output in the coming years.
Climate change-induced sea-level rise and excessive groundwater exploitation drive saltwater incursion into the Nile Delta. Water pollution and urbanisation degrade soil and spread salt. Inappropriate irrigation and changing rainfall patterns are worsening the issue.
Thus, vital crops including wheat, mangoes, soybeans, and olives have declined, threatening Egypt’s food security.
Jordan is one of the world’s most water-stressed countries due to fast population development, increased industrial and agricultural activity, and climate change. These issues threaten the agriculture industry, which indirectly accounts for 25% of GDP.
Economist Impact, backed by UNICEF, estimated that water scarcity might impair agricultural productivity by 1.2% annually by 2030, costing Jordan USD 29 million annually. The World Bank believes that climate change and water shortages might reduce Jordan’s GDP by 6.8%, costing USD 2.6 billion.
The water crisis is worsening food insecurity, which affects 56% of Jordanians and 89% of refugees. The situation has worsened as malnutrition has risen since the mid-2000s.
Iraq: Fifth Most Vulnerable Nation
Iraq is the fifth most susceptible nation to climate change, experiencing a multifaceted dilemma caused by rising temperatures, diminishing rainfall, intensifying droughts, poor water management, and dwindling upstream water supplies. These factors destroyed Iraq’s water resources. Since 2003, Iraq has faced significant water shortages, and the Ministry of Water Resources estimates it will lose 53 billion cubic metres by 2019.
The UN reports that 90% of Iraq’s rivers are polluted, and by 2035, its water supplies will cover only 15% of its needs. Iraq has lost 61% of its irrigated agricultural land in the past decade, according to the Statistics Authority.
According to the Ministries of Agriculture and Environment, desertification has halved Iraq’s farmland, losing 10,000 hectares annually. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, one in two Iraqi families has reduced their cultivated land or water consumption due to these hard conditions, worsening the food crisis that threatens Iraq’s stability and future.
Climate change is an existential problem that threatens human security and magnifies all injustice. Falling food output, rising poverty, and growing hunger are just glimpses of a problem that worsens daily if nothing is done. Due to diminishing food yields, especially in vulnerable regions, 43 million Africans may fall below the poverty line by 2030.
The solutions are possible with local and global political will and collective commitment. Developing climate-resilient agriculture, water resource management, and climate policies must be done now. These steps are essential to save millions of lives and create a more egalitarian and sustainable future.