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Go Green with GBO: Reports find Ukraine war worsening climate change

Ukraine and the nations in the global south that will be most impacted by climate change are owed money by the Russian Federation, which needs to be held accountable

In addition to the growing human death toll and extensive damage, a study shows that the climate cost of Russia’s war on Ukraine over the first two years exceeded the annual greenhouse gas emissions produced separately by 175 nations, worsening the global climate disaster.

According to the most thorough analysis of conflict-driven climate impacts ever conducted, Russia’s invasion has produced at least 175 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), in addition to the future carbon cost of reconstruction. These emissions have been caused by direct warfare, landscape fires, rerouted flights, forced migration, and leaks from military attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure.

Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), the most potent of all greenhouse gases, are included in the 175 million tons. This is equivalent to operating 90 million gasoline-powered vehicles for a full year, and it surpasses the combined emissions produced by the Netherlands, Venezuela, and Kuwait in 2022.

Governments have historically done a terrible job of accounting for the climate cost of war and, more generally, the military-industrial complex. Due to military secrecy, official data is very sporadic or non-existent, and researchers have little access to the frontlines. Even less is known about the economic cost of greenhouse gasses, which will have an impact on the entire world.

However, the Russian Federation faces a USD 32 billion (25 billion pound) climate reparations bill from its first 24 months of war, according to a new report by the Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War (IGGAW), a research collective partially funded by the Swedish and German governments as well as the European Climate Foundation.

The Council of Europe has established a record of damages, which will include climate emissions, in response to the United Nations General Assembly’s demand that Russia pay Ukraine for the war. The expenses could be covered by frozen Russian assets. A recent peer-reviewed study that determined the social cost of carbon to be USD 185 per ton of greenhouse gas emissions is the basis for the reparations estimate.

Lennard de Klerk, the principal author for IGGAW, said, “Russia is not just hurting Ukraine but also our environment. This significant conflict of carbon will have an impact on the entire world. Ukraine and the nations in the global south that will be most impacted by climate change are owed money by the Russian Federation, which needs to be held accountable. For the first time, reparations for the climate effects of war have been assessed, and the report represents the most thorough examination of the climate cost of any fight.”

The fuel used by Russian troops is the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 35 million tCO2e, or one-third of all battle emissions. Additional sources include the petroleum used by allies to transport military hardware and the production of carbon-intensive bombs, ammunition, and defence walls along the frontlines by both nations.

The enormous amounts of steel and concrete required to rebuild the homes, factories, bridges, schools, and water plants that have been damaged or destroyed account for another third. There has already been some reconstruction, and in certain instances, the rebuilt structures have been demolished once more.

According to Neta Crawford, author of The Pentagon, Climate Change and War, the extent of the carbon effect will ultimately depend on whether newer, more sustainable methods and materials are employed for reconstruction or more conventional, carbon-intensive methods.

Fires, commercial aircraft rerouting, attacks on energy infrastructure, and, to a lesser extent, the relocation of about 7 million Russians and Ukrainians were the main causes of the last third.

Since the invasion, landscape fires on both sides of the border have grown in magnitude and ferocity. One million hectares (2.47 million acres) of burned fields and woods were attributed to military causes in the first analysis of its sort, making about 13% of the overall carbon cost.

Due to the redeployment of foresters, fire personnel, and equipment, small fires nationwide became unmanageable, but the majority of flames occurred near the frontlines. Of the 4,216 fire trucks in Ukraine, about 40% have sustained damage.

Particularly in the early months of the conflict, Russia specifically targeted energy facilities, causing significant emissions of powerful greenhouse gasses. About 14m tCO2e was produced by the methane that leaked into the ocean following the demolition of the Nord Stream 2 pipes.

Russian assaults on Ukraine’s high-voltage network infrastructure are believed to have caused an additional 40 tonnes of SF6 (or around 1 million tons of CO2) to seep into the atmosphere. SF6 has almost 23,000 times the heating potential of carbon dioxide and is used to insulate electrical switchgear.

Since American and European commercial airlines are prohibited from entering Russian airspace, aviation fuel usage has skyrocketed. In response, Australian and certain Asian airlines have begun using detours. At least 24m tCO2 has been produced by the additional miles.

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