The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE) has kept its real GDP growth forecasts at 4% for 2024, but increased them to 4.5% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026.
Growth in the tourism, transportation, financial and insurance services, construction and real estate, and communication sectors is expected to propel the Gulf major’s current year’s growth, according to the CBUAE’s Quarterly Economic Review-December 2024.
Due primarily to the faster growth in manufacturing, trade, transportation and storage, and real estate activities, non-oil GDP growth accelerated to 41% YoY in Q2 2024 from 4% YoY in the previous quarter.
Non-oil GDP growth is anticipated to continue to be robust at 4% in 2024 and 5% in 2025, primarily due to the government’s strategic plans and policies that encourage economic diversification and draw in foreign investment.
In Q3 2024, all 16 non-oil sectors maintained their consistent growth trajectory. Among the main drivers of the expansion in the non-oil sector were manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and construction.
The manufacturing sector grew under the various Federal and Emirates strategies and continued to draw in more FDI. The construction industry also experienced rapid expansion in the first nine months of 2024. The UAE has strengthened its trade partnerships with numerous nations through the comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) it has signed.
The UAE’s non-oil trade consequently surpassed AED 1 trillion in H1 2024, which is equal to 134% of the nation’s GDP and represents a 10.6% YoY increase. This indicates that the strategy to diversify the UAE economy and fortify ties with important trading partners has been successfully implemented.
Oil production, which averaged 20.9 million barrels per day in the first 10 months of 2024, is predicted to increase by 11.3%in 2024 and then surge to 20.9% in 2025.
When compared to the same period in 2023, the UAE fiscal sector’s performance in the first half of 2024 was strong, with notable gains in government revenue and fiscal surplus.
Talking about UAE and trade partnerships, the Gulf major has broadened its global connections through its membership in BRICS, stated Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri, the country’s minister of economy, as he highlighted the significance of the intergovernmental organisation in bolstering the UAE’s economic position by fostering closer ties with leading economies such as China and India.
Speaking to Japan’s Nikkei Asia, Al Marri further emphasised the broader role of BRICS in facilitating international collaboration and communication, stressing the importance of ongoing dialogue between nations.
“The world needs more dialogue and conversation, and the BRICS bring that as well,” he remarked, which reflected the Gulf country’s growing engagement with the alliance, which aims to amplify the influence of emerging economies on the global stage.
The UAE’s participation in BRICS aligns with its broader economic strategy to diversify partnerships and attract investment.
UAE, which was added to BRICS in January 2024, also has a membership in the BRICS New Development Bank, which it joined in October 2021, thereby underscoring its dedication to international development initiatives.