As the global economy fights the gloom created by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, South Africa has emerged as a story of resilience, with the country recording a sharply higher current account surplus in the first quarter of 2026, the largest in more than four years, helped by increased net gold exports.
The current account surplus widened to 2.4% of GDP in the quarter from 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, said the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The surplus on the current account was 190.7 billion rand (USD 11.53 billion) in January-March, compared with a surplus of 50.2 billion rand in the previous three-month period.
“The trade surplus widened to 437.9 billion rand in the first quarter from 282.2 billion rand in the fourth quarter. The value of exports of goods and services in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 78.3 billion rand, reflecting higher prices and volumes, while the value of imports of goods and services decreased by 96.8 billion rand as both prices and volumes decreased,” the SARB remarked.
Announcing the numbers, SARB said South Africa’s financial system would likely remain resilient despite tighter financial conditions and monetary policy stemming from the Iran war. After years of underperformance, Africa’s biggest economy started to pick up its pace in 2025, with investor sentiment brightening on signs of fiscal discipline. However, the nation needs to fight the headwinds generating from the Middle East conflict, as the domino effects have dampened the near-term outlook by rippling through oil markets, capital flows, and household finances.
“The oil price shock is expected to continue to exert inflationary pressure, potentially prompting tighter monetary policy than before the conflict,” SARB noted.
The SARB’s quarterly projection model now suggests another interest rate increase in 2026 after a 25-basis-point hike at its policy meeting on May 28.
“Relief for interest rate-sensitive households is unlikely to materialize as expected at the beginning of the year,” the monetary body remarked.
Apart from the Iran war, SARB also noted down advances in frontier AI, notably Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview, as a potential risk for South Africa’s financial stability.
“Cyber risk has shifted from episodic and largely manageable events to continuous and compounding,” it added.
“South Africa’s foreign exchange reserves have grown to over 16% of gross domestic product, the highest recorded level since the early 1960s, and the country meets all major reserve-adequacy metrics,” the apex bank concluded.