According to a study by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), with robust industrial and climatic development policies, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) area could generate 10 million new jobs, accelerate GDP to 7.2%, and increase employment to 5.3% in less than three decades.
The ILO’s ‘Just Transition Pavilion’ hosted the introduction of a report titled “The social and employment impacts of decarbonisation and green industrial growth scenarios for the Middle East and North Africa region” during COP28 in Dubai.
It points out that to achieve such outcomes, the MENA region’s nations must enact robust industrial policies, link development and climate policies, and increase their investments in waste management, green water desalination, reforestation, and climate resilience.
Strong policies that seek to accomplish a “just transition”—one that creates adequate employment possibilities and leaves no one behind—to move towards a green economy in a way that is as fair and inclusive as possible—would also be necessary for such a resilience scenario.
Additionally, it would necessitate focusing on investments in social protection, human capital, and low-wage, unskilled labour.
At the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (MoHRE), Her Excellency Shayma Al Awadhi, Assistant Undersecretary for Communication, and International Relations, said, “It is true that decarbonisation and climate change pose several challenges, as more environmentally friendly and sustainable production and consumption practises will mean that certain sectors will decline while others grow and transform. Adopting a complete combination of economic, social, and climate policy actions simultaneously has the potential to boost employment rates, generate more jobs, and boost economic prosperity.”
Under H.E. Al Awadhi’s explanation, “A just transition means that we should make sure social justice and equality underpin the formulation and implementation of all economic and social policies related to the decarbonisation of the economy, including labour market and employment policies,” the UAE is making significant progress toward decarbonisation with the UAE Net Zero by 2050 initiative.
Adequate labour markets and social policies are prerequisites for acting on climate change. The UAE Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation unveiled several policies designed to assist the country in making a just transition, one that prioritises taking aggressive action on climate change while also generating income, jobs, and economic growth for all.
“The world is currently experiencing an accelerated change in the energy landscape. In this shift, the MENA area has the chance to take the lead once again. Significant welfare gains compared to a business-as-usual scenario might be realised with strong industrial and fair transition policies in place,” according to ILO Deputy Director-General Celeste Drake.
ILO Deputy Regional Director for Arab States Peter Rademaker said, “The MENA region’s natural advantages in renewable resources, such as solar and wind energy, and a young labour force provide a solid foundation for leading the green industrial revolution. The MENA region stands at a critical juncture and must actively participate in the global energy transition to avoid welfare losses and secure a sustainable future, with increased opportunities for all, including marginalised groups.”
Eng. Mohammad Jamal Alsaati, Special Advisor to His Excellency the President of the IsDB, said, “Yesterday, IsDB was proud to launch our Just Transition Conceptual Framework and Action Plan 2023-2025, which aims to support country-driven just, inclusive, and fair transitions, leaving no one behind.”
“We are happy to begin this significant study today with our close partner, the ILO, and we expect that the results will help guide our just transition action plan and our further discussions with our Member Countries,” the official remarked further.
Principal Report Conclusions
Cambridge Econometrics conducted the study for the ILO and IsDB. First among the researched scenarios is a global net zero emissions scenario in which MENA nations continue to be passive participants in the energy transition and may experience welfare losses relative to the baseline. In a second scenario, where MENA nations actively spearhead the global energy transition, considerable increases in GDP and employment could be realised.
The third, ideal scenario would need strong industrial policies in the areas of green hydrogen, solar power, and electric mobility to produce the best labour market and socioeconomic outcomes. It could also create 10 million new jobs and accelerate GDP to 7.2% and employment to 5.3% in less than three decades.
These would be paired with appropriate transition policies to allow youth to receive training in new low-carbon technologies as well as upskilling and reskilling in these areas. MENA nations would also integrate climate change into development plans and increase their investments in waste management, green water desalination, reforestation, and climate resilience.
A resilience scenario of this kind would also require robust just transition policies that focus on investments in social protection, human capital, and low-wage, unskilled labour.