On its latest policy meeting on Sunday (August 2), OPEC+ approved an oil production quota increase of around 188,000 barrels per day from September, in a move that now effectively ends the series of voluntary output cuts.
Due to export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars, successive monthly OPEC+ hikes over most of 2026 have remained largely on paper with little impact on the market.
As per the OPEC+, the September quota increase received upvotes from the cartel’s core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. The development has marked a complete reversal from the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023, when the group still included the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which left the organization in May.
Although there were reports suggesting that OPEC+ might pause output increases for the fourth quarter, the group’s statement did not specify any potential agreements for the last three months of 2026.
“A pause was still a feasible option. OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalize,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad.
“Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations,” he told Reuters.
On Sunday, there was another OPEC+ meeting, involving the panel called the “Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee.” The body reiterated concern about attacks on energy assets during the Iran war, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply.
With September’s output hike now agreed, OPEC+ still has in place one more layer of output cuts that will apply to most of the group’s members. Those roughly two million bpd in cuts date back to 2022 and are due to remain in place until the 2026-end.
OPEC+ is carrying out a review of its members’ oil production capacity that will be used for the 2027 output baselines from which quotas are set. During the phase, it will also take calls over new production quotas, with some members, including Iraq, pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect their higher capacity.