Cuba, an island known for its resilience and revolutionary spirit, is currently facing one of the most significant energy crises in its modern history. Rolling blackouts, ageing infrastructure, fuel shortages, and an increasingly fragile economy have left millions of Cubans struggling to cope with the impacts of unreliable electricity.
We will examine the roots, scale, and implications of the Cuban energy crisis, utilising recent data, historical context, and expert insights to provide a comprehensive overview of the situation.
Everyday life of an average Cuban
Blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day have become commonplace, particularly outside Havana, where infrastructure is less robust. Food insecurity is worsening as unrefrigerated supplies spoil amid extended power cuts, directly affecting households that already spend a significant portion of their income on food. In many urban areas, running water is often disrupted because electric pumps are needed to move water from cisterns to homes.
For the average Cuban, the hardships are overwhelming. Entire families must endure relentless heat without fans or air conditioning, even during sweltering summer months. The smell of spoilt food lingers in neighbourhoods, as refrigerators are rendered useless by the frequent power cuts.
Parents face the daunting task of cooking meals with limited fuel resources, while children struggle to complete their homework by candlelight or the dim glow of a battery-powered lamp. Waiting in long lines for necessities has become an exhausting daily routine, compounded by the uncertainty of whether those items will even be available. The stress and anxiety of not knowing when electricity will be restored take a toll on mental health, and many Cubans are left feeling isolated and abandoned by a system that seems incapable of providing even the most basic services.
Healthcare facilities, most of which rely on outdated generators, struggle to maintain basic services. Reports indicate that some hospitals have had to ration power, prioritising critical units like intensive care while suspending other services. The impact on public health has been severe, with increased instances of heat-related illnesses and rising mental health concerns linked to prolonged uncertainty and hardship.
Educational institutions have not been spared either. In October 2024, the government closed schools for several days, citing the need to reduce non-essential electricity consumption. This disruption in education, combined with broader economic difficulties, has added to the sense of despair among the youth of the country, many of whom believe migration is their only viable option. Indeed, between 2021 and 2023, over a million Cubans left the country, about 10% of the population, marking one of the largest emigration waves since the 1959 revolution.
Historical roots of Cuba’s energy dependency
Cuba’s energy infrastructure has a complex history shaped by political alliances, especially during and after the Cold War. Throughout the 20th century, Cuba’s energy needs were mostly met through support from the Soviet Union, which provided the island nation with fuel and technological assistance.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Cuba was left without its primary supplier, plunging into a severe economic downturn referred to as the “Special Period.” During this time, Cuba attempted to restructure its economy and diversify energy sources by using biomass, wind, and solar power, yet these efforts were insufficient to meet the island’s energy needs.
Cuba remains heavily reliant on thermoelectric power plants, which produce around 80% of the nation’s electricity. These plants are fuelled predominantly by oil, much of which historically came from Venezuela. This dependency has become increasingly problematic as Venezuela’s economic crisis has limited its ability to provide Cuba with affordable oil.
In 2024, Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba fell to 25,000-30,000 barrels per day, a significant drop from the 100,000 barrels per day supplied a decade ago, forcing Cuba to seek alternative and often more expensive sources on the global spot market.
State of Cuba’s energy infrastructure
Cuba’s energy infrastructure is aged and overburdened, with most power plants well beyond their intended lifespan. The Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric power plant, located near Matanzas, is one of the largest and oldest plants, with its operations frequently disrupted due to technical failures and fuel shortages.
As of late 2024, Cuba’s five main thermoelectric plants are all over 30 years old, with some approaching 50 years, significantly past their designed operational limits of 25-30 years. This has led to frequent breakdowns, decreased efficiency, and a substantial increase in the frequency of blackouts.
The Cuban National Electrical Union (UNE) has reported a high number of grid collapses recently, with four such incidents occurring in two days in October 2024. UNE officials have highlighted how obsolete equipment, lack of spare parts, and financial constraints make timely repairs nearly impossible.
The reliance on emergency measures such as floating power plants, leased from Turkey, has provided only temporary relief. These ship-based generators have limited capacity and cannot meet the energy demands of a nation with 10 million people, particularly as those demands continue to rise.
Fuel shortages and geopolitical pressures
Fuel shortages are central to Cuba’s energy crisis. With Venezuelan oil shipments plummeting, Cuba has attempted to compensate with oil imports from countries like Russia and Mexico, but these have also decreased. In early October 2024, a fuel tanker carrying essential supplies to Cuba was delayed due to bad weather, further exacerbating the country’s inability to generate adequate power. Estimates suggest that Cuba currently generates only about 500 megawatts on the grid, compared to the three gigawatts needed to power the entire country effectively.
The United States’ trade embargo, which has been in place for over 60 years, has significantly limited Cuba’s ability to invest in its energy sector. The embargo prevents Cuba from accessing credit from international financial institutions and restricts the import of technology needed to modernise its infrastructure.
According to Cuban officials, the embargo has cost the island more than $130 billion in cumulative losses. The inability to access advanced equipment has led to stagnation in progress and forced reliance on obsolete technologies that are both inefficient and costly to maintain.
The US has also been accused of orchestrating numerous covert operations intended to destabilise the Cuban government, contributing to ongoing hardships. These actions include support for anti-government groups and efforts to undermine the island’s economy, making recovery from crises like the current energy situation significantly more challenging.
Dysfunctional political apparatus
Cuba’s political apparatus has long been marked by inefficiencies, a lack of transparency, and centralised decision-making that stifles innovation and local autonomy. The government’s commitment to a centrally planned economy has left little room for market-driven reforms that could stimulate growth or attract foreign investment.
This rigidity has been a significant obstacle to economic diversification and modernisation, particularly within the energy sector. The decision-making process remains dominated by the Communist Party, with key roles occupied by individuals selected based on loyalty rather than expertise. This has resulted in poor policy implementation and an inability to respond quickly to crises, such as the current energy shortage.
Moreover, the Cuban government has often prioritised political stability over economic pragmatism, maintaining a tight grip on public discourse and dissent. State-controlled media outlets minimise the extent of economic problems, while authorities have been known to suppress protests and silence critics, as seen during the 2024 blackouts.
This lack of accountability not only increases public frustration but also restricts the government’s ability to effectively leverage the collective ingenuity of its people. The inability of the political apparatus to adapt and reform has thus played a critical role in exacerbating the current energy crisis, with little indication of a shift towards policies that could create sustainable, long-term solutions.
Economic and social ramifications
The energy crisis has devastated the Cuban economy, which is already struggling with limited productivity and high inflation. Many businesses have had to close or reduce operating hours due to unreliable electricity. The tourism sector, a crucial source of foreign currency, has also been severely affected. Major hotels in Havana, usually resilient due to backup power systems, ran out of fuel for their generators during recent blackouts, leading to a drop in bookings and revenue.
Cuba’s GDP could shrink by 3% in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of economic contraction. Export earnings are still $3 billion short of pre-pandemic levels, and inflation has significantly eroded purchasing power.
The combination of high costs for imported fuel, reduced productivity, and limited foreign reserves has pushed Cuba into what officials have termed a “war economy,” austerity measures aimed at cutting consumption and conserving whatever limited resources remain.
Social unrest has been simmering, with small-scale protests emerging in response to blackouts and deteriorating living conditions. President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s administration has taken a hard stance against dissent, deploying police and military units to prevent the spread of protests.
During the latest round of blackouts, Díaz-Canel appeared on television, dressed in military attire, warning against any attempts to disrupt public order, framing dissent as a product of foreign interference. Despite these warnings, frustrations continue to grow, particularly among younger Cubans who see little opportunity for economic improvement.
Steps towards recovery
Efforts to address the energy crisis have included emergency measures like leasing floating power plants and importing fuel on the spot market. Still, these solutions are neither sustainable nor cost-effective in the long term. Cuba has also sought to boost its renewable energy capacity, with mixed results.
The government aims to produce 24% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, primarily through wind, solar, and biomass. However, as of 2024, renewables make up less than 5% of the total energy mix, hindered by a lack of investment and the challenges of importing technology.
Cuba’s geographical location gives it a significant advantage in harnessing solar and wind energy, and some small-scale projects have shown promise. For instance, the solar photovoltaic park in Cienfuegos is one of the largest in the Caribbean, providing much-needed power to local communities.
However, without large-scale investments and technology transfers, these initiatives remain limited in scope. The trade embargo has also made it challenging for Cuba to access the international financing needed to scale up renewable energy projects, despite some support from European nations and China.
One potential avenue for relief lies in improved diplomatic relations with the United States. During the Obama administration, US-Cuban relations improved, leading to increased remittances and tourism that positively impacted the Cuban economy. A renewed engagement could ease access to credit and technology, although current US political dynamics make such a shift uncertain. Former President Joe Biden relaxed some sanctions, allowing for limited remittances, but broader relief has not yet materialised, largely due to domestic political pressures in the United States.
The broader implications
The energy crisis in Cuba is not an isolated incident but rather a symptom of broader systemic challenges facing the island. It highlights the vulnerabilities of a centrally planned economy that could not modernise its infrastructure or diversify its energy sources effectively.
The crisis also underscores the impact of climate change on vulnerable nations. Cuba, which has faced multiple hurricanes in recent years, lacks the resilience to quickly recover from natural disasters, which often target critical infrastructure, further deepening its energy woes.
The migration of over a million Cubans since 2022 is both a consequence and a driver of the crisis. With an ageing population and a diminishing workforce, Cuba’s capacity to recover economically is further compromised. The demographic shift will likely have lasting effects, reducing productivity and increasing the dependency ratio, placing additional strain on already limited social services.
Despite Cuba’s close ties with allies such as Russia and China, these nations have limited capacity to provide meaningful assistance in addressing the energy crisis. Russia, embroiled in its geopolitical struggles and economic sanctions, is focused on maintaining stability at home and supporting its involvement in other regions like Ukraine.
China’s economic growth has also slowed, with domestic priorities including a struggling real estate market and its energy demands. Furthermore, China has to manage its international loans and investments carefully to avoid overextension. Other regional allies face similar limitations, leaving Cuba largely isolated in terms of receiving substantial external support.
Addressing Cuba’s energy crisis will require a combination of internal reforms, international support, and, potentially, a rethinking of US-Cuba relations. Without such changes, the crisis might persist, further eroding the quality of life for millions of Cubans and pushing the nation deeper into economic stagnation and social instability. The resilience of the Cuban people has been remarkable, but without systemic change, their ability to endure these hardships is being pushed to its limits.