Donald Trump is back in the White House, and his vision for the Middle East is already taking shape. Within hours of his inauguration, he signed orders reversing major Joe Biden administration policies. One of the most significant was revoking Executive Order 14115, which had imposed sanctions on far-right Israeli settlers accused of attacking Palestinians in the West Bank.
That same evening, masked settlers attacked Palestinian villages near Qalqilya, setting fire to homes and cars. Israeli police opened an investigation. The next day, the Israeli Defence Forces launched a major military operation in Jenin, calling it “Iron Wall.”
At least nine Palestinians were killed. Israel said the aim was to “defeat terrorism,” but the operation raised fears that the fragile ceasefire in Gaza—brokered just before Donald Trump’s return—might collapse.
Donald Trump has taken credit for securing the ceasefire, but he is skeptical that it will hold. “It’s not our war, it’s their war,” the Republican noted, suggesting that his focus might be elsewhere. He wants Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, but the Saudis demand a Palestinian state in return—something Israel’s government won’t accept.
Ceasefire And Trump’s Intentions
Donald Trump has leverage: military aid and diplomatic cover. He can use them to enforce the ceasefire. But will he? For now, his envoy convinced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to sign the deal. The true test comes in the next phase. If Israel derails the process, as many expect, Trump’s response will reveal his priorities.
Mairav Zonszein, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, warns that the ceasefire is fragile. Without enforcement, Israel could abandon the deal. In the West Bank, it already has.
The “Trump factor” played a role in securing the ceasefire. Benjamin Netanyahu signed the deal because he knew Trump’s return was imminent, but he also knew he could keep his coalition intact. One of the two ultranationalist parties in his government did not oppose the ceasefire.
Yet Benjamin Netanyahu may walk away from the next phase. He is under pressure from far-right allies who do not want Israeli forces to withdraw from Gaza. Meanwhile, violence in the West Bank continues. Just before the ceasefire, over a hundred Palestinians were killed. Since then, Israeli settlers have been emboldened, while major Palestinian cities remain under lockdown.
Donald Trump’s approach to the Palestinians has not changed. In his first term, he cut aid and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. Now, his early actions suggest more of the same. His team reflects this stance. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is a staunch Israel supporter, and his U.N. Ambassador, Elise Stefanik, aligns with Israeli ultranationalists.
Sara Isabella Leykin of ISPI MENA Centre points to Donald Trump’s comment about Gaza having a “phenomenal location on the sea.” It reveals his real estate mindset but also his indifference. The ceasefire was about optics, not peace. Lifting sanctions on violent settlers confirms his priorities.
A Tough Bargain Awaits
Donald Trump wants Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, but the world has changed since his first term. The Gaza war made Israel toxic in the Arab world. More importantly, Saudi Arabia wants guarantees from the United States—a defence treaty, advanced weapons, and nuclear technology. Only after that will it discuss normalisation.
Aziz Alghashian, a fellow at CARPO, says normalisation talk is premature. The Saudis will not move unless the US delivers, and they expect Israel to pay a price too.
The Joe Biden administration helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, but it is temporary. The deal expires soon, and both sides have yet to fully comply. So far, the truce has survived skirmishes and violations, but its future depends on Donald Trump.
Fadi Nicholas Nassar of the Middle East Institute says all eyes are on Washington. Will Donald Trump push to maintain the ceasefire, or will he let it collapse? The answer will shape Lebanon’s future.
Strategic Ambivalence Awaits Trump 2.0
Iran watches Trump’s second term with distrust. His administration is divided between hawks who want war and isolationists who want to avoid foreign entanglements. This creates uncertainty.
Seyed Emamian of Tehran Polytechnic University notes that Iran expects another “maximum pressure” campaign. It is preparing for sanctions and possible strikes, but Trump’s unpredictability also creates a narrow opening.
His skepticism of NATO could lead to renewed nuclear talks, and his desire to exit the Middle East could open the door for negotiations. Still, most in Tehran remain pessimistic.
Post-Assad Syria is in flux. The new ruler, Ahmad al-Sharaa, is waiting to see Donald Trump’s next move. Joe Biden’s administration engaged with him but kept sanctions in place. The US wants an inclusive government before lifting restrictions.
Al-Sharaa’s challenge is disarming jihadi groups that helped him seize power, but he cannot move until the situation in northeast Syria is settled. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control that area with US backing. If Donald Trump withdraws American troops, the Kurds will have no choice but to negotiate. If he keeps troops in place, conflict is likely.
The stakes are high. If al-Sharaa succeeds, Syria could receive international recognition and aid. If he fails, the country risks further fragmentation.
Donald Trump’s first steps suggest a familiar pattern: bold moves, little patience for diplomacy, and a preference for deals over long-term solutions. Whether that leads to stability or more chaos remains to be seen.