The Iran war and the resultant volatility have failed to slow down Dubai’s residential property market’s steady rise, as home prices declined far less than real estate stocks, highlighting the strength of the market’s underlying fundamentals.
According to the real estate consultant ANAROCK, while Dubai’s overall property stocks plunged as much as 34% at their peak during the conflict between February and April 2026, the residential segment witnessed only 4%-7% fall in prices prices, marking the widest gap between market sentiment and underlying asset performance recorded during any crisis situation.
As per ANAROCK, average residential prices in the first half of 2026 stood at around AED 1,900 per square foot, compared with AED 1,800 per square foot seen during the same period in 2025, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase.
“Dubai recorded more than 206,166 residential transactions worth AED 547 billion in 2025, an 18% increase in transaction volumes from a year earlier. The total sales value rose nearly 26% year-on-year and was ten times higher than the AED 54 billion recorded in 2020,” ANAROCK noted.
In the first half of 2026, residential transactions totalled AED 225.7 billion in the emirati city, As per ANAROCK’s estimates, this represented a 15% increase compared with 2024 but was 16% lower than the 2025’s exceptionally strong levels. Off-plan properties, on the other hand, continued to dominate activity, accounting for nearly 70%-77% of all residential transactions during the period.
“The conflict early in 2026 tested Dubai’s residential market at a time when regional uncertainty was at its peak. In the months that followed, buyer activity returned steadily, prices remained resilient, and demand continued to be supported by strong structural fundamentals rather than speculative momentum,” said Aayush Puri, CEO – Residential, Middle East and CEO – ANAROCK Channel Partners (India).
“The recovery has been underpinned by robust market fundamentals. Dubai recorded AED 225.7 billion worth of residential transactions in the first half of 2026, representing 15% growth against 2024 but dropping 16% against 2025. Moreover, off-plan transactions consistently accounted for nearly 70%-77% of market activity throughout the period, highlighting sustained buyer confidence despite short-term uncertainty,” he added.
For the remainder of 2026, ANAROCK expects Dubai residential prices to rise another 4%-7%, with the potential for gains of 8%-13% if geopolitical volatilities in the Middle East ease. However, for the consultancy, renewed geopolitical conflict in the second half of the year remains the key downside risk for residential demand.